Pre-Breeders' Cup Picks
With about 4 1/2 weeks until the Breeders' Cup (exactly one month until the festivities begin), I thought I'd make a mid-week post about my favorites for each race in the series. Even though final entries and nominations haven't come in, yet, we do have a good idea of who the favorites will be.
There are 13 races in the two-day race schedule, and this year they will be held at Santa Anita Park. I wish we could go, but with all the baby expenses plus travel and stuff that we'd have to add onto it, AND no work getting done to earn money during the vacation, we can't afford it. Instead, I have my fingers crossed that I will be at my grandmother-in-laws from first post Fri & Sat until the last races on the cards are over.
All the thirteen races are Grade 1, the top level in horse racing.
Juvenile Turf (1 mile turf, 2yo males only) $1 million, $600,000 to winner:
Oscar Performance
Though Oscar Performance hasn't won a "Win and You're In", the son of Kitten's Joy is 2-for-3, having won his last two starts. His last victory was a runaway win at Belmont in the Grade 3 Pilgrim. He has proven he can get the distance, having won in front-running fashion over 1 1/16 miles in both his victories.
Dirt Mile (1 mile dirt, open to all 3yos and older) $1 million, $600,000 to winner:
Masochistic
I had a hard time choosing one here. Frosted may go here, and if he does, it will be his race to lose. Also, I will be pulling for Texas Chrome and Runhappy, but my head says Masochistic will probably beat them. Texas Chrome will be stepping up in company, and Runhappy will be running his second start off a layoff--his first was a disappointing 4th in the Ack Ack. The field doesn't appear to be a big one here this year, as only Tom's Ready (winner of the G3 Ack Ack) comes to mind to wrap the field up at 5.
Juvenile Fillies Turf (1 mile turf, 2yo females only) $1 million, $600,000 to winner:
Intricately
Now, there is no guarantee that she will come, but if she does she will be Breeders' Cup winning jockey Joseph O'Brien's first Breeders' Cup entry as a trainer. She has won the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes for an automatic all-fees-paid berth into this race, and there is serious talk about her coming over. She will be one to watch when they load in the starting gate for the third Breeders' Cup race of the weekend.
Distaff (1 1/8 miles dirt, 3yos and older females only) $2 million, $1.2 million to winner:
Songbird
I had a hard time here, as really Beholder is a great choice for me. I would like to see her go out on a win, even though there has been talk of her coming back for a 7yo campaign. But to see Songbird go twelve-for-twelve and beat older mares to tie up an already sealed 3yo Filly Award would be something else. As a backup I would love to see Beholder and Songbird be impossible to separate at the line--and Stellar Wind finally back in third behind them. This will be a hard to watch race anyway, for Forever Unbridled is another favorite of mine. So whatever happens, I will be both sad and happy with the result.
Juvenile Fillies (1 1/16 miles dirt, 2yo females only) $2 million, $1.2 million to winner:
Union Strike
She broke her maiden by beating American Cleopatra, who had beaten her in their last start, a maiden special. I love her because she is a daughter of Union Rags, who I have always had an eye on and is now making his mark at stud. This will be a step up in distance for her, adding 1 1/2 furlongs, but she should be able to get the distance, and is already a Grade 1 winner. She won't have raced for just 2 days over 2 months, but being a 2-year-old in today's world, she shouldn't have too big an issue with that, either.
Turf Sprint (about 6 1/2 furlongs turf, open to all horses 3yo and older) $1 million, $600,000 to winner:
Holy Lute
Although he will be facing major company, in this particular race, being a sprint down Santa Anita's hillside course, you have to pick a horse that is proven on it. While the last Turf Sprint winner at this course, Bobby's Kitten, did not have a previous run on it, look back at other previous winners. The mare Mizdirection won the previous two editions over the course, and she was a hillside specialist. California Flag and Desert Code, the winners of the first two editions of this race, had both won stakes down the hill during the years of their Turf Sprint wins. With that said, maybe somebody will pull a Bobby's Kitten. Still, with 4-out-of-5 runnings of the Turf Sprint at Santa Anita being won by a horse proven on the course, it seems to be a near guarantee that the 2016 winner will be proven on the course.
Filly & Mare Sprint (7 furlongs dirt, 3yo and older females only) $1 million, $600,000 to winner:
Carina Mia
She is known as the second-best 3yo filly in the land, and though she finished 3rd in the "Win and You're In" Ballerina, and also though no 3yo has won the Filly & Mare Sprint, that in time will change and she will add a furlong here. Since she has won going a mile, she can get the elongated sprint distance, and a win here for her would cement Songbird's status as a truly great filly.
Filly & Mare Turf (1 1/4 miles turf, 3yo and older females only) $2 million, $1.2 million to winner:
Seventh Heaven
While she is only "possible" at this stage, the "Win and You're In" contender is likely in my mind to be in the starting gate come November 5. In getting her Filly & Mare Turf berth, she held off eventual Arc winner Found, and won by daylight. Aidan has won just about every turf race in the Breeders' Cup and so it would not surprise me if this girl came home first.
Sprint (6 furlongs dirt, open to all horses 3yo and older) $1.5 million, $900,000 to winner:
Lord Nelson
Although he hasn't been seen in a while, this horse is proven at the track and distance, and with deadly efficiency. A.P. Indian would be my backup plan, here, but look to see him come off his layoff running. He has won the Bing Crosby to get his berth, and did it with devastating ease.
Mile (1 mile turf, open to all horses 3yo and older) $2 million, $1.2 million to winner:
Tepin
This was a no-brainer, but should we see Alice Springs bring her A-game and Tepin be a little short of her best, we could see an upset. Alice Springs came in second in Keeneland's Juvenile Fillies Turf last year going this distance, but on softer ground not to her liking. She has come into her own this year, and will be one to watch. That said, Tepin hasn't lost since last year's First Lady, which she is using as her last prep for this, and that includes wins in the Queen Anne in England and the Woodbine Mile (a Win and You're In) in Canada, both against males. And she is this year's defending Mile champion.
Juvenile (1 1/16 miles dirt, 2yo males only) $2 million, $1.2 million to winner:
Gormley
2-for-2 in his career, he beat Baffert's Klimt with devastating ease last out to get his berth for this race, in the FrontRunner at Santa Anita. That means he is proven at the distance on the track, and I would love to see the Mosses get a Breeders' Cup win with a juvenile. However, keep your eyes on both Not This Time (dominating Iroquois winner) and Klimt, for they might have something to say about Gormley. And Klimt will be looking for revenge.
Turf (1 1/2 miles turf, open to all horses 3yo and older) $4 million, $2.4 million to winner:
Found
She is not guaranteed to come here, but there is nothing barring her, not even her trainer, who is leaving it wide open for her. She is following the same route here as last year, and though she will start down the hill before hitting the main course and this is a different course than last year when she became the first 3yo filly to win, this is her time of year, and Flintshire will be the closest challenger. She is the defending champion, and even though she has not won a "Win and You're In", there are still plenty of spots in the starting gate for her. If she wins, she will become the first female dual-winner of this race, as well as the first reigning Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner to take the Turf. Ironically, she was edging out another horse's attempt at his Arc/Turf double when she beat him last year at Keeneland.
Classic (1 1/4 miles dirt, open to all horses 3yo and older) $6 million, $3.6 million to winner:
California Chrome
Unless Frosted comes here and has an ace up his sleeve, and unless Arrogate proves something even more extraordinary than his Travers performance showed, the world's best racehorse will prevail here. This is the highlight of the Breeders' Cup card. California Chrome has already won two "Win and You're In" titles to this race, and if he wins this, he will earn a $1 million bonus for sweeping the Pacific Classic, Awesome Again, and Breeders' Cup Classic. He will also be the first reigning Dubai World Cup winner to take the Classic. But this is at his home track, and he has been blooming all year. There is no reason for him to lose.
In all, there will be $26.5 million offered in purses, with $15.9 million of that going to the winners of the 13 races. It is a lucrative weekend, and if California Chrome rakes home the winner's $3.6 million share of the Classic purse, he will become the world's richest racehorse, with earnings standing at $17,032,650 lifetime. And it won't end there. He still will compete in the world's richest race in January, the $12 million Pegasus World Cup, good for $7.2 million to the winner. If he takes that, too, he will have a total of $24,232,650 in earnings!! Not bad for a colt bred in California by a cheap regional sire and a claimer mare, costing less than $10k to breed.
I will be making my regular post on Friday, with news from the reenactment and other comments. So until then!
There are 13 races in the two-day race schedule, and this year they will be held at Santa Anita Park. I wish we could go, but with all the baby expenses plus travel and stuff that we'd have to add onto it, AND no work getting done to earn money during the vacation, we can't afford it. Instead, I have my fingers crossed that I will be at my grandmother-in-laws from first post Fri & Sat until the last races on the cards are over.
All the thirteen races are Grade 1, the top level in horse racing.
Juvenile Turf (1 mile turf, 2yo males only) $1 million, $600,000 to winner:
Oscar Performance
Though Oscar Performance hasn't won a "Win and You're In", the son of Kitten's Joy is 2-for-3, having won his last two starts. His last victory was a runaway win at Belmont in the Grade 3 Pilgrim. He has proven he can get the distance, having won in front-running fashion over 1 1/16 miles in both his victories.
Dirt Mile (1 mile dirt, open to all 3yos and older) $1 million, $600,000 to winner:
Masochistic
I had a hard time choosing one here. Frosted may go here, and if he does, it will be his race to lose. Also, I will be pulling for Texas Chrome and Runhappy, but my head says Masochistic will probably beat them. Texas Chrome will be stepping up in company, and Runhappy will be running his second start off a layoff--his first was a disappointing 4th in the Ack Ack. The field doesn't appear to be a big one here this year, as only Tom's Ready (winner of the G3 Ack Ack) comes to mind to wrap the field up at 5.
Juvenile Fillies Turf (1 mile turf, 2yo females only) $1 million, $600,000 to winner:
Intricately
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| Intricately (red silks) |
Distaff (1 1/8 miles dirt, 3yos and older females only) $2 million, $1.2 million to winner:
Songbird
I had a hard time here, as really Beholder is a great choice for me. I would like to see her go out on a win, even though there has been talk of her coming back for a 7yo campaign. But to see Songbird go twelve-for-twelve and beat older mares to tie up an already sealed 3yo Filly Award would be something else. As a backup I would love to see Beholder and Songbird be impossible to separate at the line--and Stellar Wind finally back in third behind them. This will be a hard to watch race anyway, for Forever Unbridled is another favorite of mine. So whatever happens, I will be both sad and happy with the result.
Juvenile Fillies (1 1/16 miles dirt, 2yo females only) $2 million, $1.2 million to winner:
Union Strike
She broke her maiden by beating American Cleopatra, who had beaten her in their last start, a maiden special. I love her because she is a daughter of Union Rags, who I have always had an eye on and is now making his mark at stud. This will be a step up in distance for her, adding 1 1/2 furlongs, but she should be able to get the distance, and is already a Grade 1 winner. She won't have raced for just 2 days over 2 months, but being a 2-year-old in today's world, she shouldn't have too big an issue with that, either.
Turf Sprint (about 6 1/2 furlongs turf, open to all horses 3yo and older) $1 million, $600,000 to winner:
Holy Lute
Although he will be facing major company, in this particular race, being a sprint down Santa Anita's hillside course, you have to pick a horse that is proven on it. While the last Turf Sprint winner at this course, Bobby's Kitten, did not have a previous run on it, look back at other previous winners. The mare Mizdirection won the previous two editions over the course, and she was a hillside specialist. California Flag and Desert Code, the winners of the first two editions of this race, had both won stakes down the hill during the years of their Turf Sprint wins. With that said, maybe somebody will pull a Bobby's Kitten. Still, with 4-out-of-5 runnings of the Turf Sprint at Santa Anita being won by a horse proven on the course, it seems to be a near guarantee that the 2016 winner will be proven on the course.
Filly & Mare Sprint (7 furlongs dirt, 3yo and older females only) $1 million, $600,000 to winner:
Carina Mia
She is known as the second-best 3yo filly in the land, and though she finished 3rd in the "Win and You're In" Ballerina, and also though no 3yo has won the Filly & Mare Sprint, that in time will change and she will add a furlong here. Since she has won going a mile, she can get the elongated sprint distance, and a win here for her would cement Songbird's status as a truly great filly.
Filly & Mare Turf (1 1/4 miles turf, 3yo and older females only) $2 million, $1.2 million to winner:
Seventh Heaven
While she is only "possible" at this stage, the "Win and You're In" contender is likely in my mind to be in the starting gate come November 5. In getting her Filly & Mare Turf berth, she held off eventual Arc winner Found, and won by daylight. Aidan has won just about every turf race in the Breeders' Cup and so it would not surprise me if this girl came home first.
Sprint (6 furlongs dirt, open to all horses 3yo and older) $1.5 million, $900,000 to winner:
Lord Nelson
Although he hasn't been seen in a while, this horse is proven at the track and distance, and with deadly efficiency. A.P. Indian would be my backup plan, here, but look to see him come off his layoff running. He has won the Bing Crosby to get his berth, and did it with devastating ease.
Mile (1 mile turf, open to all horses 3yo and older) $2 million, $1.2 million to winner:
Tepin
This was a no-brainer, but should we see Alice Springs bring her A-game and Tepin be a little short of her best, we could see an upset. Alice Springs came in second in Keeneland's Juvenile Fillies Turf last year going this distance, but on softer ground not to her liking. She has come into her own this year, and will be one to watch. That said, Tepin hasn't lost since last year's First Lady, which she is using as her last prep for this, and that includes wins in the Queen Anne in England and the Woodbine Mile (a Win and You're In) in Canada, both against males. And she is this year's defending Mile champion.
Juvenile (1 1/16 miles dirt, 2yo males only) $2 million, $1.2 million to winner:
Gormley
2-for-2 in his career, he beat Baffert's Klimt with devastating ease last out to get his berth for this race, in the FrontRunner at Santa Anita. That means he is proven at the distance on the track, and I would love to see the Mosses get a Breeders' Cup win with a juvenile. However, keep your eyes on both Not This Time (dominating Iroquois winner) and Klimt, for they might have something to say about Gormley. And Klimt will be looking for revenge.
Turf (1 1/2 miles turf, open to all horses 3yo and older) $4 million, $2.4 million to winner:
Found
She is not guaranteed to come here, but there is nothing barring her, not even her trainer, who is leaving it wide open for her. She is following the same route here as last year, and though she will start down the hill before hitting the main course and this is a different course than last year when she became the first 3yo filly to win, this is her time of year, and Flintshire will be the closest challenger. She is the defending champion, and even though she has not won a "Win and You're In", there are still plenty of spots in the starting gate for her. If she wins, she will become the first female dual-winner of this race, as well as the first reigning Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner to take the Turf. Ironically, she was edging out another horse's attempt at his Arc/Turf double when she beat him last year at Keeneland.
Classic (1 1/4 miles dirt, open to all horses 3yo and older) $6 million, $3.6 million to winner:
California Chrome
Unless Frosted comes here and has an ace up his sleeve, and unless Arrogate proves something even more extraordinary than his Travers performance showed, the world's best racehorse will prevail here. This is the highlight of the Breeders' Cup card. California Chrome has already won two "Win and You're In" titles to this race, and if he wins this, he will earn a $1 million bonus for sweeping the Pacific Classic, Awesome Again, and Breeders' Cup Classic. He will also be the first reigning Dubai World Cup winner to take the Classic. But this is at his home track, and he has been blooming all year. There is no reason for him to lose.
In all, there will be $26.5 million offered in purses, with $15.9 million of that going to the winners of the 13 races. It is a lucrative weekend, and if California Chrome rakes home the winner's $3.6 million share of the Classic purse, he will become the world's richest racehorse, with earnings standing at $17,032,650 lifetime. And it won't end there. He still will compete in the world's richest race in January, the $12 million Pegasus World Cup, good for $7.2 million to the winner. If he takes that, too, he will have a total of $24,232,650 in earnings!! Not bad for a colt bred in California by a cheap regional sire and a claimer mare, costing less than $10k to breed.
I will be making my regular post on Friday, with news from the reenactment and other comments. So until then!
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